A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
